Hornbill Unleashed

February 27, 2013

Expect BN to win between 123 and 135 seats

Filed under: Politics,PRU 13 Election — Hornbill Unleashed @ 10:58 AM
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Michael Yeoh Oon Kheng

The upcoming 13th general elections will be a much-anticipated, most exciting and nail-biting election in the country’s history.

Speculation on the election date has gone on for almost one year. The options for the election timing is getting shorter. It is expected that the GE will be held on April 14 or 21.

There are three possible outcomes for the coming election:

Scenario 1: The present status quo remains
Scenario 2: A reduced majority for BN
Scenario 3: BN regains two-thirds majority

There are 222 parliamentary seats in the country, of which about 150 are Malay/bumiputera seats, 30 mixed seats and 42 Chinese-majority seats.

2008 elections who got what parliament seatIn the 2008 elections, BN won 140 seats and the opposition won 82 seats. A further breakdown shows that Umno won 79 seats, MCA 15 seats, MIC 3 and Gerakan 2, PKR won 31 seats, DAP 28 seats and PAS 23 seats.

From our analysis, it is becoming quite clear that the rural population has largely returned to BN, in particular rural Malays has largely shifted back to Umno.

In this regard, Umno is expected to win more seats than in 2008. It is likely that Umno may win 85 to 90 parliamentary seats, up from their existing 79 seats. There is also a clear trend that Indian voters in rural and semi urban areas have also shifted back to BN. However, the urban voters are largely still with Pakatan Rakyat.

Even though urban Malay voters may support Pakatan and even if more urban Malays were to support Pakatan in the urban seats, it will not increase seats for Pakatan as these urban seats are already held by DAP.

However, the urban voters are still very much with the opposition in particular. The urban Chinese are very strongly supporting the DAP.

As high as 85 percent of urban Chinese may vote for the DAP. This will increase the DAP’s numbers of seats won to 35-40 seats, up from the 28 seats DAP won in 2008, making DAP the biggest opposition party in Pakatan.

Chinese voters still pro-opposition

The prime minister’s hope is that his various outreach programmes to the Chinese community can win over some of the undecided Chinese voters but that is still a difficult challenge. Most of the Chinese seems to have made up their mind.

Some older Chinese and the Chinese business community may want to give Najib a chance. They value peace, stability and prosperity and like Najib’s engaging style, like his presence at the Dong Zong Chinese New Year Open House.

In a recent roundtable and study on the main concerns of the Chinese community organised by Asli’s Centre for Public Policy Studies, it was determined that the main issues of concern to the Chinese community are crime and corruption, education, cost of living, fairness and justice, cultural and religious issues, lack of civil service participation and lack of meritocracy.

These have caused frustrations among the Chinese voters.

However, if the Malay and Indian swing back to Umno-BN is strong, it will help MCA and Gerakan in the mixed seats where Malay voters account for higher than 40 percent and Indian voters are between 10-15 percent of the constituencies, such as Padang Serai and Gopeng.

Many of the undecided voters will want to see who are the candidates being put up by the parties and how the campaign unfolds. A gaffe or a mistake can be very costly during the campaign period.

The campaign can be a dirty campaign with a lot of personal attacks and accusations thrown by both sides. Surprises can be revealed during the campaign.

Najib will campaign from a position of strength. His popularity and personality and his hard work and tenacity can win him a lot of support. Obviously, he is more popular than his party.

Najib’s proven track record in the transformation programmes and economic performance with the 6.4 percent GDP growth in the 4th quarter of 2012 stands him and the BN government in good stead.

On the other hand, there is some urban dissatisfaction on the abuses of power, human rights violations, crime and corruption.

BN should win Kedah and Perak

In Sarawak, Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud will deliver 100 percent of his PBB seats to the BN and hence secure the majority of Sarawak seats. However, the PRS and SPDP may lose a couple of Dayak seats to PKR.

The SUPP will come under a strong challenge from DAP and could lose all its Chinese majority seats to DAP but win back Sibu with a new strong candidate and retain the Dayak majority seat of its deputy president Richard Riot, hence winning two out of its six parliamentary seats.

In Sabah, Sabah Umno should be able to do well, leading the BN to regain control of the state government. Again DAP will win in several more Chinese-majority seats.

In Peninsular Malaysia, the MCA seats that will hard fought are Gelang Patah, Kulai and Tanjung Piai in Johor and Lumut in Perak. These seats can be vulnerable.

On the other hand, MCA has a good chance of winning back Padang Serai, Gopeng and Selayang should there be a strong Malay and Indian swing back to BN.

In the state contests, Pakatan should retain Kelantan and Penang but will face a strong challenge from BN.

In Penang, if the Malay swing is strong, Umno may win 17 Malay seats and if MCA and Gerakan can win just four more seats, BN will narrowly regain Penang.

The fight for Selangor will be the toughest and it is 50:50 for either side. BN should win Kedah and Perak where the Malay swing back to Umno could help Umno win back PKR and PAS state seats in Perak although the DAP will still likely hold on to all its Chinese-majority seats in Perak.

Margin of BN’s victory uncertain

In the final analysis, the BN will win the 13th general election. The only uncertainty remains in the size of the majority.

From our analysis, BN is expected to win between 123 to 135 seats. This is the most likely outcome. However, if the Malay and Indian swing back to BN is very strong and Najib is able to bring back more undecided Chinese, BN can win up to 150 seats, which will restore the BN’s two-thirds majority. This outcome will be a difficult challenge.

The third scenario is the BN retains about the same number of seats around 140, which it won in 2008.

Nevertheless what can be certain is that the two big winners in the coming elections will be Umno and DAP.

What is also important to consider is the shape of the post-GE13 government.

Will there be a new political realignment? Will Umno seeks a new alliance with PAS for Malay and Muslim unity? How will this impact on the non-Malays and non-Muslims?

Will the two big expected election winners Umno and DAP seek a new political realignment?

Nothing is impossible after the general election. After all, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in politics. These are the sort of post-election scenarios that need to be also considered.


MICHAEL YEOH OON KHENG is chief executive officer, Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (Asli) and deputy chairman Centre for Public Policy Studies (CPPS)

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23 Comments »

  1. Everybody is try to look for better one in all area…Better job, better income. better house, better school, better government.etc…
    Same thing with our politic now, we should try to look for alternative, just like we try a new job.
    Bare in mind, improvement only come with competition. No competition no improvement, just like what happen for the past 55 years under BN ! Who make those BN cronies involve in corruption ? we allow them ! because even we know they are corrupt, we still let them win big big in the election !!! That’s mean we ALLOW them to corrupt !!!

    Think wisely, vote smartly !!!

    Comment by Mike-Johor — February 28, 2013 @ 8:39 AM | Reply

  2. Looking at the situation n he rural area…. GE13 still be BN year, probably without majority but all what matters is winning. With PR still has not convinced the rural voter in both Bornean states, no way PR can win the election. PR can’t even settle seats allocation in Sabah. Worst still, with history of party hoping….Sabah is number one! Another issue that been played and working for BN…PR is West based party…and Jeffry Kitingan is working hand in hand with BN actually to bring down PR. having STAR fielding their own candidate means a 3 corner fight at minimum in all the seat!

    Comment by Rod — February 27, 2013 @ 9:22 PM | Reply

    • The rakyat will be the judges. Let it be if there are more than two corners fight. If Rod and all Malaysians are wise enough, the nation will give birth to a two party system after GE13. Reforms and transformation cannot take place in the absence of good governance and without an all out war against corruption and power abuses. Malaysians will vote for good governance to undo all the misdeeds and plundering that had taken place for more than 50 years.

      Comment by Sabri Yaman — February 27, 2013 @ 10:46 PM | Reply

  3. The SUPP candidate for Sibu, Temenggong Vincent Lau Lee Ming, who is also deputy managing director of KTS Group, is a candidate for the tycoons and not the ordinary working class rakyat. The KTS Group has made billions out of many timber concession awards and state lands for oil palm plantation from the thief minister over the years.

    Key players in this system of exploitation are the wealthy business cronies, who also take up political jobs to support Taib and make sure they keep getting favourable concessions.

    Take for example the Sibu-based Tiong family, headed by Rimbunan Hijau boss Datuk Tiong Hiew King. Tiong has received vast timber concessions from Taib making him one of the world’s richest men, according to America’s Forbes Magazine, who have put him on their Top Billionaires Rich List. Datuk Tiong also controls a media empire, including the main Chinese newspapers in Sarawak (Sin Chew Daily, Nanyang Siang Pau, Guang Ming Daily), which is of course very convenient for managing information!

    Tiong’s younger brother, Datuk Tiong Thai King, has also conveniently gone into politics. Since 1995 he has been the BN (SUPP) MP for Lanang in Sibu, thus ensuring yet another ultra-loyal Taib supporter in the Government.

    Datuk Tiong junior is planning to run again for re-election in the upcoming GE 13. A recent court case, involving Datuk Tiong Thai King, has thrown light on a typical example of how BN MPs have brazenly used their political influence to steal lands and concessions from under the very noses of their own constituents.

    The plaintiffs were the residents of 10 Iban longhouse villages from Sungai Pelugau in Tiong’s own constituency.

    The villagers complained that since 1997 the company Rosebay Enterprise Sdn Bhd have been trespassing on their Native Customary Lands, clear-cutting the communal forest with the view to planting oil palm plantations. These areas are vital for the livelihoods of these local people, yet no warning was given or compensation made at all for the taking of their timber and land!

    “The clear-felling and planting of oil palm by the company in our native customary land has affected the livelihood of our community. The forest resources which we depend on for our livelihood such as food, valuable medicines, wildlife and other produce are getting scarce. Pesticides and herbicides used by the company flows into our rivers, thus killing the fishes.”[spokesman, Usang Ak Labit]

    When the villagers went to the authorities to complain however, they found their pleas were ignored. It seems, neither their local MP Datuk Tiong Thai King, nor the Chairman of Sibu Municipal Council, also Datuk Tiong Thai King, were interested in supporting their case!

    Rather, for their pains the villagers were rounded up and arrested by the police for daring to protest!

    The paramount thief minister, Taib Mahmud, has kept his grasp over Sarawak for over 32 years by this method of bribing MPs and assemblymen with concessions, plantations and contracts, all robbed from the state and people of Sarawak, in return for absolute loyalty.

    Sibu voters must vote out Taib Mahmud’s business cronies.

    Comment by Mata Kuching — February 27, 2013 @ 6:43 PM | Reply

  4. This article has highlighted the plight and disgusting living condition endured by a group of about 1,500 Ibans living in Kampung Pasai Siong which is about 40 to 50 km from Sibu town. If only the BN leaders especially from the Dayak community were to be honest, they cannot deny that almost 70 % of the rural folks comprising of Ibans, Bidayuhs, Orang Ulus, Melanaus, Malays and even Chinese had been deprived of basic amenities, infrastructure and decent development.

    MALAYSIA

    In Sarawak, a village of hidden desolation

    FEBRUARY 27, 2013

    KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 27 ― Imagine a community of over 1,500 people ― all Bumiputera ― living within 40-50km of a major city.

    Now imagine that this settlement ― it consists of seven long-houses sprawling over several hundred acres ― has neither electricity nor running water.

    Its principal access road is also unpaved, turning into a veritable river of mud in the rainy season and a perilously rocky thoroughfare at other times of the year.

    As I barely know Sarawak, it’s impossible for me to vouch for conditions elsewhere. But frankly, who knows how people live in the depths of Belaga, Kapit and Dalat?

    Still, I’ve not heard of Perkasa or any other Bumiputera rights groups launching protests over Kampung Pasai Siong’s infrastructural failings. Of course, these Bumiputeras aren’t Muslim. In fact they’re Iban and proudly so ― even if they’re unable to make much of a living in their home village despite being located so close to the busy and prosperous city of Sibu.

    I first visited the community back in late-2010, tagging along with one of its longhouse head’s, a dynamic and highly unusual forty-year old lady, Sijah anak Ejut, also a mother of three.

    At the time, I was dismayed at the kampung’s poor infrastructure. Leaving Sibu eighteen months ago, I remembered hoping that there’d be some improvements and soon.

    Sijah, ever the optimist, was certain that changes were just around the corner. Indeed back in 2010, she had shown me the recently-built transmission poles only a few miles away.

    So when I returned recently to profile her for my “Ceritalah Malaysia” episode on Sibu, I was looking forward to seeing how 24-hour electricity had altered life in Kampung Pasai Siong. I wanted to be upbeat and positive.

    However, round-the-clock electricity (instead of a spluttering and expensive diesel-glugging generator) remains a distant dream for Sijah’s longhouse. In Kampung Pasai Siong sunset is really the end of the day unless of course you turn on your generator. Of course, most of the homes are stacked with televisions, fans and other appliances, in anticipation of the moment when the Bakun Dam’s potential becomes a reality for ordinary Sarawakians.

    In the interim, these appliances are run off small five-horsepower generators costing over RM2,500. Moreover you’ve got to buy and then transport (over the rutted road) your RM38 barrel of oil, which will last you and your family about two weeks if used frugally every evening after sunset.

    For Klang Valley residents used to on-demand TV, Internet banking and such like, the absence of electricity is almost impossible to comprehend. How do you manage without lights at night? How do the children do their homework? What about checking your email or Facebook status? The more you think about it, the more complicated and untenable life becomes.

    The lack of running water makes life even more daunting, if not oppressive (as residents in parts of Selangor know all too well). Imagine the logistical hurdles: Do you have enough water for bathing, the toilet, washing clothes and preparing meals? Maybe you can bathe in the river? But can you face stepping into liquid that’s the colour of teh tarik: a rich, creamy brown?

    What happens in the dry season when even the rivers shrink and shrivel?

    Unfortunately, the poor access road means that Kampung Pasai Siong can’t act as a commuter settlement for Sibu despite its proximity. It’s difficult for farmers to send produce regularly to the markets in town.

    Moreover, cars and motorbikes plying the road inevitably suffer damage to their tyres so much so that many young people from the village have been forced to relocate to Sibu rather than live at home.

    However, once they’ve decided to move out then they might as well head for Miri, Bintulu or the peninsular where the pay is higher. Indeed, it’s hard to find anyone in their twenties in the longhouse.

    As night falls in Kampung Pasai Siong there’s no escaping the sense that life has changed very little for these Bumiputeras. What has Malaysia really offered them?

    I hope that when I return next time they’ll have the infrastructure they richly deserve.

    Comment by Irene Kana — February 27, 2013 @ 6:06 PM | Reply

    • WE general dayaks have been given the opportunities to stop the unjust, unfair, more than robbery type of politic in Malaysia especially in Sarawak, but most of our people still choose to bow down and surrender ourselves to the robbers. Most painful of all, community leaders and headmen are willing to sell off the future of our own race in order that they are paid with personal benefits and corrupted gains.

      WE cannot blame others totally, we need blame ourselves

      Comment by Sarawak Harapan Baru GE13 — February 27, 2013 @ 8:36 PM | Reply

      • If the Sulu’s people can cross the sea and claim Lahad Datu….furthermore armed. Why can’t we Dayak…we as orang ASAP of Sarawak can not arm against these pendatang? This is the time we can case out BN out of our life. The Iban were given the opportunity to lead……. too many chance to lead Sarawak but ending as Taib lapdog!

        Comment by Rod — February 27, 2013 @ 9:04 PM | Reply

        • We Dayaks also peace loving people, that is why we live harmoniously with all orang Cina, Melayu, Melanau, India and so on. We do not need to resort to using fire arms and parang now but are provided with new wisdom, hands and pencils that we can and will use to remove a corrupted, unjust and wicked government system such as BN

          KALI INI LAH – KITA BAWA PERUBAHAN – CHANGE WE MUST

          On the GE13 day and before its next morning, you will know. Dont under estimate Dayaks and Sarawak. Dont ever also listen to Police SB assessment because most are telling lies to please bosses and BN heads, even Bukit Aman, Semenanjong, Sabah & Sarawak are not sharing a uniform and solid information. May be this is their worst ever performance. We cannot blame them. All cari makan too?

          Comment by Sarawak Harapan Baru GE13 — February 28, 2013 @ 6:34 AM | Reply

  5. I agree that Sabah will remain BN Fixed Deposit state….Not because BN is strong but because opposition is weak.

    Comment by Henry Gramme — February 27, 2013 @ 2:22 PM | Reply

  6. BN will win if rakyat can only make noise (eg. on cyberspace and facebook) but never bother to register to vote or vote on that day.

    Please vote. Jom Balik Undi!

    Else BN will rule for the next 5 years and we will suffer once again!

    Comment by AJ — February 27, 2013 @ 2:19 PM | Reply

  7. Because hsi firm has no business. Rather than going hungry, better selling lies and provide ball-polishing and licking service to BN, hoping some money gain

    You see now, doctor, phd, masters, strategists, analysts are just like prostitutes. And when their calculation and prediction go into the drain, they just disappear in the smoke

    We rakyat trust our seeing and touching, not merely thinking empty. Even great Special Branch made big mistake assessment during GE12 resulting in BN taken by surprise and lost in so many constituencies. Do we not remember that?

    We believe in HIM who is greater than all and over all

    Comment by Sarawak Harapan Baru GE13 — February 27, 2013 @ 1:53 PM | Reply

  8. MICHAEL YEOH WELL KNOWN MAHATHIR BALLS CARRIER

    Comment by Anon — February 27, 2013 @ 1:37 PM | Reply

    • And ball licker, pleasing his Chairman Mirzan Mahathir ( http://www.asli.com.my/?p=board-of-trustees ). He doesn’t even feel assured by mentioning another possibility – PR could win,,,and with 3 other possibilities in categorical similarities!

      So you think Dayaks and Malays and Kadazanduzuns are teruk???

      Comment by 2X5 — February 27, 2013 @ 3:59 PM | Reply

  9. How much did Najib pay Michael Yeoh to articulate on his flawed and propagandistic analysis?

    Comment by Irene Kana — February 27, 2013 @ 1:25 PM | Reply

    • Michael Yeoh and MCA warlords can sell their souls to UMNO. Let their ancestors turn in their graves but Malaysians are a dignified lots and know what is best for the future of a nation getting more polarised and heading toward bankruptcy under UMNO led BN.

      Comment by Dominic Lim — February 28, 2013 @ 7:13 PM | Reply

  10. In the next few weeks before the 13thGE leaders of Pakatan Rakyat must be seen to co-operate with 1VOICE, at least publicly, then the rakyat will be happy to vote for PR. If the leaders continue to expose their diiferences publicly the rakyat will naturally have no confidence. As regards above analysis voters who have moved from BN to PR in the last GE will not go back to BN. Overall, PR can win 101 parliamentary seats in Malaya, 5 in Sarawak and 3 in Sabah.

    Comment by Ayen Piyat Tawai — February 27, 2013 @ 12:53 PM | Reply

    • The number of seats very likely to be won by PR as stated here is a realistic figure. Nonetheless,with no public quarrels and with 1VOICE for the voiceless until polling day, PR is most likely to win a few more seats to form the Federal Government by a simple majority.

      Comment by Ayen Piyat Tawai — February 27, 2013 @ 4:52 PM | Reply

  11. Ubah, reformasi, Ini Kali Lah:

    Comment by AJ — February 27, 2013 @ 12:48 PM | Reply

  12. BN will win only because of the illegal votes.

    Comment by gagojackman — February 27, 2013 @ 12:19 PM | Reply

  13. JIBBY,WHAT ARE WAITING FOR?CALL FOR GE13 NOW IF U ARE SO DAMNED SURE.WE ARE SICK N TIRED OF WAITING.WE WANT CHANGE.

    Comment by VINCENT AK PAUL — February 27, 2013 @ 11:56 AM | Reply

  14. It does not matter who will win or lose in the next election. The most important part is always educate yourself, go for the best education, spend your money wisely, learn to invest, learn how to make more money because we are the living government, not the above parties. We are responsible for our own success or failure.

    Comment by dayak thinker — February 27, 2013 @ 11:43 AM | Reply

    • Agree Agree Agree … continue the tradition of hard-work, instead of behaving like parasites / handicap / low-class beggars

      sgree

      Comment by tigeryk — February 27, 2013 @ 11:48 AM | Reply

  15. All the above assessment wrong … PR will win hands down … and no sweat, because BN is too old … 55 years old and dying

    Comment by tigeryk — February 27, 2013 @ 11:19 AM | Reply


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