Hornbill Unleashed

January 2, 2012

Will we see a change of government in Malaysia in the coming general election?

Will we see a change of government in Malaysia in the coming general election? — Liew Chin Tong

Liew Chin Tong

The 12th general election in 2008 produced a devastating result for Barisan Nasional. BN received 49 per cent of popular votes in the Peninsula while the opposition gained a combined vote of 51 per cent.

Nationally, after taking into account of votes from Sabah and Sarawak, the tally was reversed with BN 51 per cent versus the opposition at 49 per cent.

In terms of seats, on 8th March 2008, BN gained 85 seats in the Peninsula while the opposition 80 seats.

The opposition managed to get only one (Bandar Kuching) of the 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak and one (Kota Kinabalu) of 25 in Sabah. In the Peninsula, the opposition won one (Bakri) of 26 seats in Johor and two (Kuantan and Indera Mahkota) of Pahang’s 13 parliamentary seats.

The four “fixed deposit” states of BN has a total of 95 seats. A change of federal government will happen if the opposition wins a third of the parliamentary seats in the states of Sabah, Sarawak, Johore and Pahang.

Besides the economic issues such as inflation and depleting value of income, the coming 13th general election will also be based on these factors:

1. Malay votes are sensitive to issues of corruption, abuse of power and bullying tactics against political foes (think about Anwar Ibrahim, Adam Adli, etc);

2. At least two traditional vote banks of Umno — Felda and the civil service — are in jittery due to poor policy choices (listing of FGV and the new salary scheme).

3. The Indian support for BN is not as solid as it was thought. There are divides along the line of North-South (Pakatan Rakyat is not very strong in southern Peninsula), urban-estate (access to alternative information is minimal in estates), middle class-poor (the poor being more supportive of BN, for whatever reasons).

4. The Chinese support for BN has further eroded since 2008, thanks to Perkasa and Utusan.

5. In Utusan and Perkasa’s zeal to promote its exclusivist causes, a huge segment of “fixed deposits” — the Sabah and Sarawak Christian Bumiputra — are alienated.

6. Sabah Umno as possible king maker. Umno won only 79 of the 112 federal seats it contested in 2008. Of which 13 comes from Sabah and one from Labuan. Essentially, the Peninsula Umno won only 65 seats.

7. Sarawak Chief Minister Taib Mahmud as possible king maker. Allegedly Najib Razak dislikes Taib. If the Prime Minister does not do anything before the next poll, with 14 parliamentary seats which his Parti Pesaka Bumiputra Bersatu (PBB) is likely to retain, Taib may hold the balance of power.

Let’s be clear at the onset that BN has all the built-in advantages as the incumbent. After all, elections in Malaysia were never conducted fairly.

Nearly everyone in BN believes that with Najib’s alphabet soup management, the ruling coalition has recovered from its misfortune in 2008. Some cite by-election victories. Others say this Prime Minister doesn’t sleep in meetings.

However, longevity at helm is a negative factor for BN. Apart from the undemocratic communist regimes like China, Vietnam and North Korea, BN (and its predecessor the Alliance) is the longest serving elected government in the world.

Perhaps it has overstayed its welcome.

9 Comments »

  1. Will we see a change of government in the coming General Election. You have not say yes or no. So let me say it for you.

    YES. BN is history. I can see it, I can hear it, and I can feel it. If you don’t think so, then you’re not really a patriot, because patriots want their country to be strong, united, clean, and prosperous. Only enemies don’t want to see that happen. Be a patriot – Vote Pakatan Rakyat

    Comment by StraightTalking — January 3, 2012 @ 12:14 AM | Reply

  2. Najib will never like Taib because;

    1. Taib has got much much more money than Najib will ever dream of securing
    2. Taib is smarter at making money than Najib
    3. Taib’s money cannot be touched. For the moment.
    4. Najib cant use any govt security apparatus on Taib, ie MACC, ISA, OA, etc
    5. Taib can organise gliterring events in Monaco/Monte Carlo, but Najib is only an attendee. If he was ever invited.
    6. Taib’s money can buy more influence in P Malaysia than Najib can
    7. Taib has black magic on call, 24×7, to help remain in power. Najib only has fat-magic by his side, to help spend all his corrupted money.
    8. Najib has to spend millions, billions to buy votes in Sarawak, just to remain in power in W Malaysia, but Taib remains in power for free on Najib’s expense.

    Even if Sarawak decides to split from Malaysia, the Federal govt wont lose. It is not collecting significant taxes or income from Sarawak, only votes, that it spend multi millions to secure, just to remain in power.

    Ironically, Najib NEEDS Taib by spending blindly to prop him, but Taib doesnt need Najib to enrich himself or remain in power. But it looks like other govt ministers are already following Taib’s example…Sharizat, etc, etc….

    Comment by KuchingCat — January 2, 2012 @ 12:16 PM | Reply

    • Have you forgotten how to get our oil back if we leave Malaysia?

      All the money took by Taib already. Take years to chase. The Dayaks will pansap your palai. They love BN. Where got rice? All taken away by Bernas? BN give rice. Crony Syed Mohtar can starve you.

      That’s why George Chan and Taib played around with rice projects. To starve Sarawakians. Jabu got plenty money he will not starve.

      Maybe we can ask US or China to colonise us again and bring back some oil. They want oil. They can throw a few drops to us.

      But we what to use? Use black magic ? You think make 3 wishes and you’ll be free?

      Comment by Independent Sarawak — January 2, 2012 @ 7:42 PM | Reply

    • UMNO HAS ALREADY GOT TRILLIONS FROM OUR OIL -SO MAY BE IT WILL NOT BE SO WORRIED….

      Comment by AYAM KURUS — January 3, 2012 @ 10:54 PM | Reply

  3. I strongly believe the voting patterns will be status quo with same inclination towards PR in the west malaysia. The only concerns is the quality of candidates of PR since their policy is not to allow most candidates to go for both Parliament and state seats. No doubt, they are limited good people in PR, however, it is still better that corrupted lots in BN/UMNO. So, I still think PR should allow some good leaders to run for both state and parliament seats.

    Next, is to concentrate on Sabah/Sarawak. From most analysis by “experts”, it seems like it is better to team up with the locals there. PR should only concentrate on city areas and the rural areas to be given to locals when PR has no access.

    Comment by UTURN — January 2, 2012 @ 12:06 PM | Reply

  4. TO CHANGE GOV’T OR TO GET OUT OF MALAYSIA?

    Good analysis of the situation but why bother with voting to continue Sarawak’s colonization in Malaysia?

    Why not hold a referendum to “get of Malaysia”? Would PKR agree to this? If so we can vote for it……

    The major mental block Sarawakians and to a lesser extent Sabahans have to the vague idea that they are some how “stuck” forever in Malaysia because a piece of paper says they cannot “do it”!

    Why are we still promoting the idea of remaining in Malaysia when we could with our oil and timber wealth become one of S. E. Asia’s richest developed and secured independent states instead of being Kuala Lumpur/Malaya’s poorest colonies.

    Ask yourselves- is there any logic or rationales for this situation?

    The total KL disregard of the 18/29 Points Agreement for Sarawak and Sabah is the hallmark of the re-colonization of Sabah/Sarawak. We lost our political and economic rights to UMNO rule and our right to be a free and prosperous nation.

    The only decent thing we all can do for ourselves and future generations is to get out of Malaysia- as soon as possible before all our resources are stripped clean by UMNO and its local cronies.

    Comment by STOP N THINK — January 2, 2012 @ 10:42 AM | Reply

    • fully agree. 100%

      but give me RM50?

      Comment by agree to agree — January 2, 2012 @ 12:31 PM | Reply

      • AHH.. WHAT FOR?

        THE NEW SARAWAKIANS (WHEN WE GET INDEPENDENCE) WILL NOT RESORT TO BRIBERY.

        Comment by AYAM KURUS — January 3, 2012 @ 10:50 PM | Reply

    • 100% FULLY AGREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Comment by Sarawak Sympathiser — January 2, 2012 @ 3:00 PM | Reply


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