Impact of by-election

Lim Sue Goan

Although PAS knew that it was difficult to defeat Umno in the Kuala Besut by-election and take over Terengganu, it was still a blow to the party when the BN won with a slight increase in majority.

Kuala Besut was, after all, a stronghold of Umno. The ruling state government also had an advantage in the by-election, as it was able to concentrate its resources and get close to voters, such as the BN’s announcement of the RM400 million development plan.

Originally, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak planned to help canvassing in Kuala Besut but the trip was later canceled, showing that Umno already learned that they had a greater winning odds and did not need to trouble the Prime Minister. On the contrary, PAS exposed its weaknesses, as well as signs of defeat during the campaign period.

In the May 5 general election, the turnout for voting in Kuala Besut was 87%. BN’s candidate gained 8,809 votes, defeating PAS’ candidate who gained 6,385 votes with a majority of 2,434 votes.

The voter turnout in the by-election had dropped 7%. BN candidate Tengku Zaihan Che Ku Rahman polled 8,288 votes while PAS candidate Azlan Yusof polled 5,696 votes. The majority increased to 2,592 votes.

In other words, PAS gained 41.59% of votes in the general election and 40.3% in the by-election. It has also lost two iron vote areas.

There were a few factors causing PAS’ failure in narrowing the gap of votes gained, namely the lack of issues, inappropriate strategy and candidate.

The political passion of voters has subsided as it has been more than two months after the general election. Moreover, the by-election was held in the month of Ramadan, causing PAS to be caught in a predicament of no issue to spark emotions.

In addition, I believe that not many rural voters actually understood the “16:16 – A New Terengganu” motto. PAS learned the voters’ concern only on the eve of the polling day and thus, it introduced the canvass strategy of free petrol for motorcyclists aged 21 years old or above. Unfortunately, it was too late.

The candidate fielded was also inappropriate. Azlan Yusof had joined Umno when he was young and he had also made inappropriate remarks during the campaign, needing party leaders to put out the fires for him.

PAS attached great importance to the by-election as it affected the state regime. Over 10,000 supporters and almost all important leaders had turned out on the polling day.

On that day, about 300 PAS supporters mobbed a convoy of five cars transporting Election Commission (EC) deputy chairman Datuk Wan Ahmad Wan Omar and EC advisers, assuming that they were outsiders trying to bring ballot boxes into the polling station. The incident reflected the level of tension of PAS.

How could PAS still suffer a greater defeat even it had spent so much human and material resources? Could it be because its organizational capacity has dropped? Or the new line of the party has lost appeal to Malay voters?

PAS contested for 73 parliamentary seats in the May 5 general election and won only 21 of them, two seats less than the 2008 general election. It has become the smallest component party of Pakatan Rakyat and obviously, it is suffering a loss of Malay votes.

The defeat this time might hit the “sore spot” of the party’s conservative faction and lead to the call for retaking the radical religious line.

The intention of PAS to weaken the advocacy of Islamic State and hudud law and instead highlight the welfare state is to fight for non-Malay votes. However, it has now constrained by Umno in the fight for Malay votes.

We still have to wait and see whether the by-election has strengthened Najib’s position in the party, caused the hardliners of Umno to become more powerful or forced PAS to change its direction.