In a system where the election machinery is completely controlled by the government of the day, it is almost impossible for the opposition to win hands down if a state is to call for snap polls.
Professor Redzuan Othman, a leading analyst on Malaysian elections, says that a survey in 2013 on the tracking of votes has proven that in snap polls, ruling party Umno and ruling coalition Barisan Nasional will be able to garner up to even 45 percent of votes in some areas in a snap poll, as compared to lower in General Elections.
“For the opposition to even garner more than three percent than the predicted in General Election would be difficult,” says Redzuan.
Redzuan, now the deputy Vice Chancellor of Universiti Selangor and with think tank Darul Ehsan Institute, was former head of Universiti Malaya’s Centre of Democracy and Elections (UMCedel).
As the Election Commission announced the redelineation exercise, there has been calls from the opposition, namely DAP leaders such as Tony Pua, for a state snap poll in Selangor.
This was opposed by Selangor Menteri Besar Datuk Azmin Ali of PKR as he says that is out of the question for the moment as all efforts should be to combat the redelineation diplomatically and then legally.
Pua had said it would be stupid for anyone not to think of calling for a snap polls before the redelineation.
What Redzuan says is based on logic, for during snap polls, the whole government machinery will be used in full force to ensure the ruling party wins the state, and the opposition does not have the means or finance to beat that.
However, during a General Election, the government machinery is spread out thin and wide all over the nation, thus the possibility of the opposition winning is there.
Redzuan says that a new survey has been completed using new data and the redelineation taken into account and the conclusions will be released next week.