Barisan Nasional (BN) will have a better chance at retaking Selangor following the proposed redelineation exercise by the Election Commission (EC), a Politweet report stated.
According to its simulation of the next state elections, BN could stand to win up to 11 more state seats due to the increase of risky Opposition seats. Most of these will be at the expense of PAS which is set to lose up to eight seats.
“Redelineation has resulted in an electoral map where BN’s odds of increasing their number of seats has improved and the odds of retaining their existing seats improves as well,” said the report by the research outfit made available to Malay Mail Online.
“BN’s gains come at the expense of PKR and PAS, though PAS loses the most. PAS is expected to lose five to eight seats and see their number of high-risk seats increase.”
Politweet’s simulation showed that BN has increased its chances to win between 17 to 23 seats in the next elections after redelineation, compared to between 12 and 15 otherwise.
In comparison, PAS would likely win only between seven and 10 seats after redelineation, compared to between 11 and 13 previously.
In the 13th general elections, BN won only 12 seats, while PAS won 15.
“Out of the seven minimum seats PAS is expected to win, four are at-risk. A swing to BN in PAS seats can see PAS reduced from 15 seats in GE13 to three seats.
“This could give BN a potential total of 27 seats, needing only two more at-risk seats from PKR in order to win control of the state,” Politweet said.
Without redelineation, Politweet’s simulation predicted that PKR and DAP can control the state government together without relying on PAS, as it would win at least 30 seats, one more than the simple majority of 29 needed in the 56-seat legislative assembly.
However, redelineation will reduce their winnable combined seats to as few as 26.
“It is likely that after redelineation PKR and DAP will have to continue to be on good terms with PAS to retain control of the state government,” the report said.
In 2013, then Pakatan Rakyat made up of PKR, DAP and PAS had won 44 out of the 56 Selangor state legislative assembly seats.
According to Politweet, 443,484 voters will be transferred between existing seats due to the redelineation, changing the number of voters and ethnic composition in each seat.
Of those, 37 per cent of them are Malays, 44 per cent ethnic Chinese, and 18 per cent ethnic Indians.
Politweet ran 1,000 simulations of the election, assuming straight fights between BN and a united Opposition, in addition to unchanged voter sentiments and same voter turnout as the 2013 polls.
In its latest redelineation exercise, the EC is seeking to change the names of 12 parliamentary seats and 34 state constituencies nationwide ahead of the next general elections due in 2018.
Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Azmin Ali has since said the Selangor government will file an application for judicial review against the exercise, claiming it will disrupt the peace between the state’s multiracial voters.
Last month, DAP’s Serdang MP Ong Kian Ming claimed the exercise could shift the voter balance in 16 Selangor state constituencies to favour BN, among them Ijok, Selat Kelang, Pelabuhan Klang, Sementa, Sijangkang, and Morib.
Source : The Malay Mail Online