Hornbill Unleashed

December 18, 2016

Why the Harapan-Bersatu tie-up matters

Filed under: Politics — Hornbill Unleashed @ 8:01 AM

The coming together of Pakatan Harapan parties – PKR, Amanah and DAP – and Bersatu on Dec 13 is the first step towards foiling Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak’s attempt to win the next general election by default.

Najib’s game plan since 2013 has been to nullify the multi-ethnic opposition coalition by eliminating Anwar Ibrahim as its head and co-opting Abdul Hadi Awang’s PAS into Umno’s orbit in the hope that the opposition would then be left with no Malay giants to lead it, and would be left with only non-Malay leaders.

In that way, Najib would win by default, without serious challenge from any viable alternative coalition. This is not going to happen now.

Taking a step back to look at our recent history will help us understand the context and the significance of the coming together of Harapan and Bersatu.

In the May 2013 general election, Najib did everything he could to regain lost ground for BN, yet he only ended up with 47 percent of the votes.

He fully exploited the advantages of incumbency in what is essentially a one-party state, such as an unfair electoral system, a controlled media, a state apparatus that openly campaigns for the ruling coalition, etc.

In hindsight, we also know now that billions of ringgit in cash were at Najib’s disposal, apart from government largesse in buying favours and support.

Yet, Najib just barely scraped through. He knew then that without a drastic reconfiguration of the political scene, Umno-BN would not win in the next election.

Najib’s exit plan

If he is deemed unable to win the next general election, the Umno machinery would then have to dump him at some point. One could argue that Dr Mahathir Mohamad retired in 2003 and Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in 2009 because they were no longer seen to be electorally viable as leaders by the Umno machine.

But Najib can’t just leave the scene the way Mahathir or Abdullah did. By now we know that he has more skeletons in his cupboard than just the Mongolian individual. The bigger scam called 1MDB is global in effect. Any of these scandals could expose him to trouble with the law.

Malaysia is living in dangerous times because there is no turning back for its prime minister. Najib will use all means available to him to stay in power.

The only way to stay in power perpetually is to destroy the former opposition coalition – Pakatan Rakyat – by coercion and co-option.

Immediately after the 2013 election, through the current Indonesian Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, Najib offered Anwar “reconciliation” in the hope of wooing him to bring his party PKR into the government. Anwar turned the offer down – and eventually paid the price with his personal freedom.

Few remember that Najib’s earlier post-election slogan was “national reconciliation”. It was meant to repeat his father Abdul Razak Hussein’s feat of co-opting the opposition. But of course, father and son lived in very different times.

Anwar could have chosen the easy way out, especially since he knew full well that they would come after him if he rejected the offer. The opposition coalition that exists today is largely intact thanks to Anwar’s courage and readiness to sacrifice.

It was impossible for Najib to even try to entice the DAP. So that party was reserved as the racial bogeyman to be blamed for Umno’s every failure. The charges against Lim Guan Eng and DAP’s possible de-registration can be seen in this context, of Najib attempting to destroy the DAP where possible.

Najib turned to PAS soon after the “national reconciliation” phase with Anwar ended.

Ensnaring PAS

Since the March 2008 election, there has always been a group of PAS members who would have preferred to form a “unity government” with Umno at the state and even federal levels, instead of working with PKR and DAP. The late PAS spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, who firmly rejected the idea of cooperating with Umno, held them at bay numerous times between 2008 and 2013.

After Anwar’s sacking as deputy prime minister on September 1998, two broad and opposing themes “cohabitated” in PAS. A group of PAS leaders were mainly concerned about deepening the support base in the Malay belt states of Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah and Perlis, while others led by the late Fadzil Noor recognised the need for PAS to expand its reach to include urban Muslims and to engage with non-Muslims.

The first group has no qualms about working with Umno if necessary, while the second group understood the need to widen the appeal of the party with the aim of defeating Umno in elections, together with coalition partners. Also, the first group interpreted the scripture literally, while the other considered the context to be vital.

In my 2004 academic thesis on PAS, written at the Australian National University, I called the first group the “purists” and the second the “mainstreamers”, the latter being a Fadzil Noor catchphrase to indicate the party’s ambition of becoming a national mainstream party that could rule Malaysia in a coalition government, and not merely remaining a Kelantan-Terengganu regional party of little consequence.

In January 2013, months before the election, Hadi Awang (photo) declined to nominate Anwar as alternative prime minister should the opposition win and instead backed Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who further made clear that he was only prepared to switch to the opposition after the election.

In January 2014, Hadi objected to the Kajang Move sought to make Anwar the Selangor menteri besar and in July/August that year, Hadi again objected to Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail being the candidate for Selangor menteri besar.

PAS prefers Najib/Umno

In March 2014, the Najib administration initiated a major strategic shift to ally with Hadi’s faction in PAS by suggesting that the Kelantan hudud enactment could be enforced if a private member’s bill was presented to Parliament.

It was a move to kill three birds with one stone. First, it would divide PAS internally (separate the hardliners and purists from those who wish to broaden PAS’ reach); secondly, drive a wedge between PAS and their Pakatan Rakyat allies; and lastly, split society along the cleavage between Muslims and non-Muslims.

The hudud wedge is now reincarnated into the form of Hadi’s private member’s bill to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965. Indeed it exhibits the dynamics and objectives of dividing the nation and cementing a Umno-PAS de facto alliance.

The 17 years of division between the purists and the progressives since 1998 finally ended with PAS officially splitting up after its muktamar in June 2015, with the progressives leaving the party. The muktamar also resolved to cease cooperation with DAP, effectively pronouncing the death of Pakatan Rakyat.

For those who still harbour hopes that PAS under Hadi would join hands to defeat Najib’s Umno, it is important not to forget the upheavals since 2013 that saw Hadi’s camp preferring to back Najib than Anwar, and to work with Umno than with other opposition parties.

In the confused state of affairs since 2013, many have forgotten that the progressives who left PAS are the real heroes of our time, who fought against Najib’s attempt to co-opt Malay opposition leaders into Umno’s circle.

Parti Amanah Negara, the new home for the progressives, was formed on Sept 16 last year and in its wake, Pakatan Harapan was formed.

Strong Malay opposition leadership

Najib’s game plan of eliminating ethnic Malay opposition leaders through the jailing of Anwar and the co-option of PAS, leaving the opposition with only non-Malay giants and very few credible Malay leaders, was ultimately foiled by a new split within Umno’s own ranks.

In response to mounting pressure on the question of 1MDB and the billions of ringgit in Najib’s personal bank accounts, Najib sacked Muhyiddin Yassin as deputy prime minister and Umno vice-president Shafie Apdal as minister on July 28, 2015, while Mukhriz Mahathir was unceremoniously removed as Kedah menteri besar in February 2016.

This ultimate realignment of Malaysian politics was a glacial move. Mahathir quit Umno on Feb 29 and stunned many by making a bold presence alongside DAP’s Lim Kit Siang and many former foes to launch the Citizens’ Declaration on March 4, 2016.

Many months later, in August, Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) was established and registered in September. The handshake between Anwar and Mahathir in a courtroom in September, as well as the emotional meeting of their wives (Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail and Dr Siti Hasmah Mohamad Ali) in November, were iconic moments of our time, when former foes grudgingly sought reconciliation to stop the Najib juggernaut.

Mahathir’s and Muhyiddin’s presence at Pakatan Harapan’s inaugural convention on Nov 12 was an important milestone especially when Mahathir expressed his wish that Bersatu be admitted as a member of Pakatan Harapan.

The realignment took further shape when Mahathir spoke at the Bersih 5 rally on Nov 19, attended DAP’s national conference on Dec 4 and Amanah’s on Dec 10.

It will take the opposition a long and emotional journey to foil Najib’s attempt to win the next general election by default. And in that process, we must not forget the sacrifices made by Anwar, Guan Eng and the progressives who left PAS to form Amanah.

After a long detour, the opposition is now back as a grand multi-ethnic coalition under strong Malay leadership and ready to challenge the newly aligned Umno-PAS de facto coalition.

Such is the full meaning of the coming together of Harapan parties and Bersatu on Dec 13, 2016.



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